Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point – MarketWatch

U.S. stocks are mixed Wednesday, vacillating as Treasury yields continue to stabilize in the wake of largely uneventful Federal Reserve policy remarks.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 remains capped by its breakdown point (3,950) amid still largely range-bound price action as market rotation persists.

MW JD773 202103 20210324130009 NS ProxyEgg Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point - MarketWatch

MW JD774 202103 20210324130010 NS ProxyEgg Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point - MarketWatch

Before detailing the U.S. markets’ wider view, the S&P 500’s US:SPX  hourly chart highlights the past two weeks.

(Editor’s Note: Today’s review has been delayed by a major technology glitch.)

As illustrated, the S&P has pulled in from the breakdown point (3,950). Tuesday’s session high (3,949) matched resistance.

More immediately, a jagged retest of the 3,915 support remains underway. Wednesday’s early session low (3,917) once again registered nearby.

The prevailing downturn has thus far inflicted limited damage in the broad sweep.

MW JD770 202103 20210324130005 NS ProxyEgg Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point - MarketWatch

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average US:DJIA  is digesting a pullback from last week’s record high.

Tactically, the 32,500 and 32,800 areas remain near-term inflection points.

Conversely, the Dow’s first significant floor matches the Feb. peak (32,009), an area better illustrated on the daily chart.

MW JD767 202103 20210324130002 NS ProxyEgg Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point - MarketWatch

Perhaps not surprisingly, the Nasdaq Composite US:COMP remains the weakest major U.S. benchmark.

Recall the index topped twice last week near the range top (13,607) an area also detailed on the daily chart below.

More immediately, the Nasdaq has asserted a posture under the 50-day moving average, currently 13,431.

Combined, the prevailing range is capped by the 50-day moving average and the slightly more distant range top.

MW JD768 202103 20210324130003 NS ProxyEgg Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point - MarketWatch

Widening the view to six months adds perspective.

On this wider view, the Nasdaq is traversing the range. Familiar resistance (13,607) has capped the March price action.

Conversely, the 2020 peak (12,973) remains a notable bull-bear inflection point.

Recall the early-March violation of the 2020 peak resolved a head-and-shoulders top.

Still, the relatively swift reversal atop the pattern’s neckline (12,973) was fueled by two 7-to-1 up days across a three-session window. This area “should” have drawn selling pressure if a downtrend were in play.

Tactically, the Nasdaq’s backdrop supports a guardedly bullish intermediate-term bias barring a re-violation of the 2020 peak (12,973).

Upside follow-through atop the 50-day moving average, and the March peak, would more firmly strengthen the bull case.

MW JD769 202103 20210324130004 NS ProxyEgg Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point - MarketWatch

Looking elsewhere, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is digesting the most decisive March breakout.

The prevailing pullback has been comparably flat, signaling still relatively muted selling pressure. Constructive price action.

Tactically, the breakout point (32,009) is followed by the former range top, circa 31,650.

The ascending 50-day moving average, currently 31,506, is rising toward support.

MW JD773 202103 20210324130009 NS ProxyEgg Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point - MarketWatch

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has pulled in to its former range.

The week-to-date price action has effectively been capped by the breakdown point (3,950).

Still, material downside follow-through has thus far been limited. Tactically, the 50-day moving average, currently 3,869, matches the 3,870 support.

The bigger picture

As partly detailed above, a mid-March consolidation phase remains underway.

Against this backdrop, the major benchmarks remain in divergence mode amid market rotation — toward value, and away from growth (for now) — and persistently uneven price action.

Amid the cross currents, each benchmark’s intermediate-term bias remains bullish, based on today’s backdrop.

MW JD771 202103 20210324130006 NS ProxyEgg Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point - MarketWatch

Moving to the small-caps, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF US:IWM  has extended its pullback, notching its first close under the 50-day moving average since October.

More immediately, a retest of the range bottom (216.70) remains underway. Wednesday’s early session low (216.62) has registered nearby.

Delving deeper, the March closing low (213.19) and absolute March low (207.21) mark inflection points. An eventual violation would mark a “lower low,” and punctuate a modified double top, defined by the February and March peaks.

The small-cap benchmark’s intermediate-term bias remains bullish pending such a move.

MW JD772 202103 20210324130007 NS ProxyEgg Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point - MarketWatch

Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF US:MDY  has violated its breakout point (470.50), pressured amid a volume spike.

Delving deeper, the MDY has maintained a posture atop its 50-day moving average, currently 457.25.

Slightly deeper support matches the range bottom, circa 452.10.

MW JD775 202103 20210324130011 NS ProxyEgg Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point - MarketWatch

Looking elsewhere, the SPDR Trust S&P 500 US:SPY  has pulled in to its former range.

Tactically, the breakdown point — an area matching the February peak — has capped the week-to-date price action.

More broadly, the SPY is traversing a six-week range, punctuated by modest March breaks both higher and lower.

MW JD774 202103 20210324130010 NS ProxyEgg Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point - MarketWatch

Placing a finer point on the S&P 500, the index has pulled in from the breakdown point (3,950).

More immediately, a jagged retest of the 3,915 support remains underway.

To reiterate, Wednesday’s early session low (3,917) registered nearby. (Also see Thursday’s session low (3,915), last week’s close (3,913) and Monday’s session low (3,914).)

MW JD773 202103 20210324130009 NS ProxyEgg Market rotation persists, S&P 500 capped by the breakdown point - MarketWatch

More broadly, the S&P 500 has staged a thus far garden-variety pullback from all-time highs.

Tactically, the 50-day moving average, currently 3,869, effectively matches the S&P’s former breakout point (3,870).

Delving deeper, the 3,830 support is followed by a still likely last-ditch floor currently matching the March low (3,723). An eventual violation of the March low would mark a material “lower low” likely raising a technical caution flag.

Beyond technical levels, the prevailing downturn has thus far inflicted limited damage in the broad sweep. The S&P 500’s intermediate-term bias remains bullish, based on today’s backdrop, amid still rotational March price action.

No new setups today due to a major technology glitch.

Still well positioned

The table below includes names recently profiled in The Technical Indicator that remain well positioned. For the original comments, see The Technical Indicator Library.

Company Symbol* (Click symbol for chart.) Date Profiled
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITB Mar. 23
Lennar Corp. LEN Mar. 23
Jabil Circuit, Inc. JBL Mar. 23
Dish Network Corp. DISH Mar. 23
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. UNH Mar. 22
DraftKings, Inc. DKNG Mar. 22
Shift4 Payments, Inc. FOUR Mar. 19
Whirlpool Corp. WHR Mar. 19
U.S. Bancorp USB Mar. 19
Nasdaq, Inc. NDAQ Mar. 18
D.R. Horton, Inc. DHI Mar. 18
Facebook, Inc. FB Mar. 17
AutoNation, Inc. AN Mar. 17
McDonald’s Corp. MCD Mar. 16
Virtu Financial, Inc. VIRT Mar. 16
Spirit Airlines, Inc. SAVE Mar. 16
LKQ Corp. LKQ Mar. 15
Anthem, Inc. ANTM Mar. 15
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. WBA Mar. 12
International Paper Co. IP Mar. 12
iShares Europe ETF IEV Mar. 11
CME Group, Inc. CME Mar. 11
3M Co. MMM Mar. 11
Southwest Airlines Co. LUV Mar. 10
Under Armour, Inc. UA Mar. 9
Big Lots, Inc. BIG Mar. 9
Alaska Air Group, Inc. ALK Mar. 9
State Street Corp. STT Mar. 8
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. AEO Mar. 8
Hess Corp. HES Mar. 3
Beazer Homes USA, Inc. BZH Mar. 3
Mastercard, Inc. MA Mar. 2
Boeing Co. BA Mar. 2
Starbucks Corp. SBUX Mar. 1
Eaton Corp. ETN Feb. 25
Oracle Corp. ORCL Feb. 24
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. UAL Feb. 24
Nucor Corp. NUE Feb. 23
Signet Jewelers Limited SIG Feb. 23
Old Dominion Freight Line ODFL Feb. 22
Seagate Technology STX Feb. 19
Chevron Corp. CVX Feb. 18
Lyft, Inc. LYFT Feb. 16
Intel Corp. INTC Feb. 12
U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS Feb. 9
Motorola Solutions, Inc. MSI Feb. 9
KeyCorp KEY Feb. 5
Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANG Feb. 4
Wix.com, Ltd. WIX Feb. 3
CarMax, Inc. KMX Feb. 3
Toll Brothers, Inc. TOL Feb. 2
Avis Budget Group, Inc. CAR Feb. 1
Capital One Financial Corp. COF Jan. 29
Cummins, Inc. CMI Jan. 25
Magna International, Inc. MGA Jan. 22
M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. MDC Jan. 22
Zebra Technologies Corp. ZBRA Jan. 14
Macy’s, Inc. M Jan. 11
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. NXST Jan. 11
iShares Transportation Average ETF IYT Jan. 11
Energy Select Sector SPDR XLE Jan. 8
Skyworks Solutions, Inc. SWKS Jan. 7
Financial Select Sector SPDR XLF Jan. 7
Synaptics, Inc. SYNA Jan. 4
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM Dec. 22
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. WSM Dec. 15
SDPR S&P Regional Banking ETF KRE Dec. 14
Etsy, Inc. ETSY Dec. 14
Emerson Electric Co. EMR Dec. 8
Fortinet, Inc. FTNT Dec. 7
Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc. KLIC Dec. 7
Dillard’s, Inc. DDS Dec. 4
Sonos, Inc. SONO Dec. 1
American Airlines Group, Inc. AAL Nov. 30
Bank of America Corp. BAC Nov. 20
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF XOP Nov. 20
MetLife, Inc. MET Nov. 19
Kohl’s Corp. KSS Nov. 18
Applied Materials, Inc. AMAT Nov. 17
Regions Financial Corp. RF Nov. 13
Norfolk Southern Corp. NSC Nov. 9
Communications Services Select Sector SPDR XLC Nov. 5
Alphabet, Inc. GOOGL Nov. 5
Micron Technology, Inc. MU Oct. 20
ON Semiconductor Corp. ON Oct. 16
Ford Motor Co. F Oct. 15
SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF XHB Oct. 9
Shake Shack, Inc. SHAK Oct. 9
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. MLM Sept. 30
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF Sept. 29
Crocs, Inc. CROX Sept. 14
Five Below, Inc. FIVE Sept. 10
Deere & Co. DE Aug. 24
Johnson Controls International JCI Aug. 21
General Motors Co. GM Aug. 20
Builders FirstSource, Inc. BLDR Aug. 18
Industrial Select Sector SPDR XLI Aug. 6
Penn National Gaming, Inc. PENN July 30
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF XME July 28
Materials Select Sector SPDR XLB July 20
Caterpillar, Inc. CAT July 20
SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT June 3
iShares MSCI Japan ETF EWJ May 29
Tesla, Inc. TSLA Apr. 23
Apple, Inc. AAPL Mar. 27, 2020
Microsoft Corp. MSFT Feb. 22, 2019
* Click each symbol for current chart.

Source of this news: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-rotation-persists-sp-500-capped-by-the-breakdown-point-2021-03-24

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