U.S. stocks are mixed Wednesday, vacillating as Treasury yields continue to stabilize in the wake of largely uneventful Federal Reserve policy remarks.
Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 remains capped by its breakdown point (3,950) amid still largely range-bound price action as market rotation persists.
Before detailing the U.S. markets’ wider view, the S&P 500’s US:SPX hourly chart highlights the past two weeks.
(Editor’s Note: Today’s review has been delayed by a major technology glitch.)
As illustrated, the S&P has pulled in from the breakdown point (3,950). Tuesday’s session high (3,949) matched resistance.
More immediately, a jagged retest of the 3,915 support remains underway. Wednesday’s early session low (3,917) once again registered nearby.
The prevailing downturn has thus far inflicted limited damage in the broad sweep.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average US:DJIA is digesting a pullback from last week’s record high.
Tactically, the 32,500 and 32,800 areas remain near-term inflection points.
Conversely, the Dow’s first significant floor matches the Feb. peak (32,009), an area better illustrated on the daily chart.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the Nasdaq Composite US:COMP remains the weakest major U.S. benchmark.
Recall the index topped twice last week near the range top (13,607) an area also detailed on the daily chart below.
More immediately, the Nasdaq has asserted a posture under the 50-day moving average, currently 13,431.
Combined, the prevailing range is capped by the 50-day moving average and the slightly more distant range top.
Widening the view to six months adds perspective.
On this wider view, the Nasdaq is traversing the range. Familiar resistance (13,607) has capped the March price action.
Conversely, the 2020 peak (12,973) remains a notable bull-bear inflection point.
Recall the early-March violation of the 2020 peak resolved a head-and-shoulders top.
Still, the relatively swift reversal atop the pattern’s neckline (12,973) was fueled by two 7-to-1 up days across a three-session window. This area “should” have drawn selling pressure if a downtrend were in play.
Tactically, the Nasdaq’s backdrop supports a guardedly bullish intermediate-term bias barring a re-violation of the 2020 peak (12,973).
Upside follow-through atop the 50-day moving average, and the March peak, would more firmly strengthen the bull case.
Looking elsewhere, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is digesting the most decisive March breakout.
The prevailing pullback has been comparably flat, signaling still relatively muted selling pressure. Constructive price action.
Tactically, the breakout point (32,009) is followed by the former range top, circa 31,650.
The ascending 50-day moving average, currently 31,506, is rising toward support.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has pulled in to its former range.
The week-to-date price action has effectively been capped by the breakdown point (3,950).
Still, material downside follow-through has thus far been limited. Tactically, the 50-day moving average, currently 3,869, matches the 3,870 support.
The bigger picture
As partly detailed above, a mid-March consolidation phase remains underway.
Against this backdrop, the major benchmarks remain in divergence mode amid market rotation — toward value, and away from growth (for now) — and persistently uneven price action.
Amid the cross currents, each benchmark’s intermediate-term bias remains bullish, based on today’s backdrop.
Moving to the small-caps, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF US:IWM has extended its pullback, notching its first close under the 50-day moving average since October.
More immediately, a retest of the range bottom (216.70) remains underway. Wednesday’s early session low (216.62) has registered nearby.
Delving deeper, the March closing low (213.19) and absolute March low (207.21) mark inflection points. An eventual violation would mark a “lower low,” and punctuate a modified double top, defined by the February and March peaks.
The small-cap benchmark’s intermediate-term bias remains bullish pending such a move.
Meanwhile, the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF US:MDY has violated its breakout point (470.50), pressured amid a volume spike.
Delving deeper, the MDY has maintained a posture atop its 50-day moving average, currently 457.25.
Slightly deeper support matches the range bottom, circa 452.10.
Looking elsewhere, the SPDR Trust S&P 500 US:SPY has pulled in to its former range.
Tactically, the breakdown point — an area matching the February peak — has capped the week-to-date price action.
More broadly, the SPY is traversing a six-week range, punctuated by modest March breaks both higher and lower.
Placing a finer point on the S&P 500, the index has pulled in from the breakdown point (3,950).
More immediately, a jagged retest of the 3,915 support remains underway.
To reiterate, Wednesday’s early session low (3,917) registered nearby. (Also see Thursday’s session low (3,915), last week’s close (3,913) and Monday’s session low (3,914).)
More broadly, the S&P 500 has staged a thus far garden-variety pullback from all-time highs.
Tactically, the 50-day moving average, currently 3,869, effectively matches the S&P’s former breakout point (3,870).
Delving deeper, the 3,830 support is followed by a still likely last-ditch floor currently matching the March low (3,723). An eventual violation of the March low would mark a material “lower low” likely raising a technical caution flag.
Beyond technical levels, the prevailing downturn has thus far inflicted limited damage in the broad sweep. The S&P 500’s intermediate-term bias remains bullish, based on today’s backdrop, amid still rotational March price action.
No new setups today due to a major technology glitch.
Still well positioned
The table below includes names recently profiled in The Technical Indicator that remain well positioned. For the original comments, see The Technical Indicator Library.
|Company||Symbol* (Click symbol for chart.)||Date Profiled|
|iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF||ITB||Mar. 23|
|Lennar Corp.||LEN||Mar. 23|
|Jabil Circuit, Inc.||JBL||Mar. 23|
|Dish Network Corp.||DISH||Mar. 23|
|UnitedHealth Group, Inc.||UNH||Mar. 22|
|DraftKings, Inc.||DKNG||Mar. 22|
|Shift4 Payments, Inc.||FOUR||Mar. 19|
|Whirlpool Corp.||WHR||Mar. 19|
|U.S. Bancorp||USB||Mar. 19|
|Nasdaq, Inc.||NDAQ||Mar. 18|
|D.R. Horton, Inc.||DHI||Mar. 18|
|Facebook, Inc.||FB||Mar. 17|
|AutoNation, Inc.||AN||Mar. 17|
|McDonald’s Corp.||MCD||Mar. 16|
|Virtu Financial, Inc.||VIRT||Mar. 16|
|Spirit Airlines, Inc.||SAVE||Mar. 16|
|LKQ Corp.||LKQ||Mar. 15|
|Anthem, Inc.||ANTM||Mar. 15|
|Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc.||WBA||Mar. 12|
|International Paper Co.||IP||Mar. 12|
|iShares Europe ETF||IEV||Mar. 11|
|CME Group, Inc.||CME||Mar. 11|
|3M Co.||MMM||Mar. 11|
|Southwest Airlines Co.||LUV||Mar. 10|
|Under Armour, Inc.||UA||Mar. 9|
|Big Lots, Inc.||BIG||Mar. 9|
|Alaska Air Group, Inc.||ALK||Mar. 9|
|State Street Corp.||STT||Mar. 8|
|American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.||AEO||Mar. 8|
|Hess Corp.||HES||Mar. 3|
|Beazer Homes USA, Inc.||BZH||Mar. 3|
|Mastercard, Inc.||MA||Mar. 2|
|Boeing Co.||BA||Mar. 2|
|Starbucks Corp.||SBUX||Mar. 1|
|Eaton Corp.||ETN||Feb. 25|
|Oracle Corp.||ORCL||Feb. 24|
|United Airlines Holdings, Inc.||UAL||Feb. 24|
|Nucor Corp.||NUE||Feb. 23|
|Signet Jewelers Limited||SIG||Feb. 23|
|Old Dominion Freight Line||ODFL||Feb. 22|
|Seagate Technology||STX||Feb. 19|
|Chevron Corp.||CVX||Feb. 18|
|Lyft, Inc.||LYFT||Feb. 16|
|Intel Corp.||INTC||Feb. 12|
|U.S. Global Jets ETF||JETS||Feb. 9|
|Motorola Solutions, Inc.||MSI||Feb. 9|
|Diamondback Energy, Inc.||FANG||Feb. 4|
|Wix.com, Ltd.||WIX||Feb. 3|
|CarMax, Inc.||KMX||Feb. 3|
|Toll Brothers, Inc.||TOL||Feb. 2|
|Avis Budget Group, Inc.||CAR||Feb. 1|
|Capital One Financial Corp.||COF||Jan. 29|
|Cummins, Inc.||CMI||Jan. 25|
|Magna International, Inc.||MGA||Jan. 22|
|M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.||MDC||Jan. 22|
|Zebra Technologies Corp.||ZBRA||Jan. 14|
|Macy’s, Inc.||M||Jan. 11|
|Nexstar Media Group, Inc.||NXST||Jan. 11|
|iShares Transportation Average ETF||IYT||Jan. 11|
|Energy Select Sector SPDR||XLE||Jan. 8|
|Skyworks Solutions, Inc.||SWKS||Jan. 7|
|Financial Select Sector SPDR||XLF||Jan. 7|
|Synaptics, Inc.||SYNA||Jan. 4|
|JPMorgan Chase & Co.||JPM||Dec. 22|
|Williams-Sonoma, Inc.||WSM||Dec. 15|
|SDPR S&P Regional Banking ETF||KRE||Dec. 14|
|Etsy, Inc.||ETSY||Dec. 14|
|Emerson Electric Co.||EMR||Dec. 8|
|Fortinet, Inc.||FTNT||Dec. 7|
|Kulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc.||KLIC||Dec. 7|
|Dillard’s, Inc.||DDS||Dec. 4|
|Sonos, Inc.||SONO||Dec. 1|
|American Airlines Group, Inc.||AAL||Nov. 30|
|Bank of America Corp.||BAC||Nov. 20|
|SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF||XOP||Nov. 20|
|MetLife, Inc.||MET||Nov. 19|
|Kohl’s Corp.||KSS||Nov. 18|
|Applied Materials, Inc.||AMAT||Nov. 17|
|Regions Financial Corp.||RF||Nov. 13|
|Norfolk Southern Corp.||NSC||Nov. 9|
|Communications Services Select Sector SPDR||XLC||Nov. 5|
|Alphabet, Inc.||GOOGL||Nov. 5|
|Micron Technology, Inc.||MU||Oct. 20|
|ON Semiconductor Corp.||ON||Oct. 16|
|Ford Motor Co.||F||Oct. 15|
|SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF||XHB||Oct. 9|
|Shake Shack, Inc.||SHAK||Oct. 9|
|Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.||MLM||Sept. 30|
|Abercrombie & Fitch Co.||ANF||Sept. 29|
|Crocs, Inc.||CROX||Sept. 14|
|Five Below, Inc.||FIVE||Sept. 10|
|Deere & Co.||DE||Aug. 24|
|Johnson Controls International||JCI||Aug. 21|
|General Motors Co.||GM||Aug. 20|
|Builders FirstSource, Inc.||BLDR||Aug. 18|
|Industrial Select Sector SPDR||XLI||Aug. 6|
|Penn National Gaming, Inc.||PENN||July 30|
|SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF||XME||July 28|
|Materials Select Sector SPDR||XLB||July 20|
|Caterpillar, Inc.||CAT||July 20|
|SPDR S&P Retail ETF||XRT||June 3|
|iShares MSCI Japan ETF||EWJ||May 29|
|Tesla, Inc.||TSLA||Apr. 23|
|Apple, Inc.||AAPL||Mar. 27, 2020|
|Microsoft Corp.||MSFT||Feb. 22, 2019|
|* Click each symbol for current chart.|
Source of this news: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-rotation-persists-sp-500-capped-by-the-breakdown-point-2021-03-24
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